C for Concern: Immigration, Data, and Destabilisation - the UK's Migration Dilemma.

hello25051
Aug 4
6 min read

Updated: Sep 5

Image courtesy of Wix AI

Concern:

Immigration remains one of the most contentious issues in the United Kingdom, shaping both political discourse and public sentiment. The government’s costly and often over-budget efforts to accommodate and resettle migrants continue to strain public finances as well as public patience. The resulting destabilization of Britain’s future is becoming increasingly apparent, with widespread protests and riots in the capital reflecting mounting public dissatisfaction with government decisions.

As of May 2025, 49% of UK adults identified immigration as a primary issue, while 28% viewed it as the nation's most urgent problem since the 2016 Brexit referendum.*1

Public opinion reflects a hardening stance: 68% of respondents believe immigration levels are "too high," and only 15% believe the levels are "about right."*2

The British Home Office reports a cumulative overspend of £7.9 billion over the last three years and is projected a £6.4 billion overspend once again*10

Data courtesy from the Home Office Annual Report and Accounts 2024 to 2025 *11

The UK government has also announced further deals with Europe to allow international asylum seekers and boats into the UK.*4 While the government invests billions in these policies, UK citizens are targeted by emerging political parties whose campaigns promise large-scale repatriation of migrants.

This article will look at a few of the drivers behind growing public concerns around net migration, its repercussions for civic cohesion in the UK, international collateral effects, and a possible connection to persistent UK budget overspending.

Figure 1 Source: IFS report, the data is drawn from official Home Office Estimates submitted to Parliament. *14

Cohesion:

By May 2025, nearly half of UK adults considered immigration a leading concern, coinciding with UK's recent migrant arrivals, including Afghan nationals resettled after the fall of Kabul on the 15th of August 2021. With tens of thousands resettled under government programmes, the UK finds itself confronting with the logistical and ethical challenges of protection and integration, and also acute concern over national identity, social cohesion, and public expenditure. UK Parlia and the UK Secretary of State for Defence John Healy have discussed the UK having received approximately 34,000 - 36,000 Afghans through the UK ARAP, ACRS, and ARR programmes by mid‑2025, and a politically sensitive issue amid broader debates on border control and national capacity. *6,7,9

Capacity and Strategy: Focus on The UK’s Approach to Afghan Resettlement.

As of April 2025, the UNHCR reported 122.1 million forcibly displaced people worldwide.*3 Of these, around 10.3 million were Afghan nationals displaced across or within borders - indicating a net migration of 25% of the total Afghani population. (The estimated population of Afghanistan in 2025 is 40 million).

Western nations like the UK, Canada, Germany, and the U.S. are accepting tens of thousands of Afghan refugees, though most of the displacement has not resulted in long-term asylum. Instead, many Afghans face forced returns or short-term relocations, indicating deep-rooted instability regarding their future in Western regions.

Afghan Net Migration via Formal Humanitarian Routes: UK, Canada, Germany, U.S., and EU (as of Mid‑2025)

Collateral Damage and Civic Strain:

We know migration generates wide-ranging collateral effects. Communities are being left with severe gender imbalances as working-age men relocate, leaving behind women, children, and the elderly. Economic strain, reduced productivity, psychological stress such as ‘brain drain,’ with risks of exploitation for unaccompanied children a continued concern. A lack of digital infrastructure - especially access to Wi-Fi and communication - deepens isolation for all.

In host nations, migrants seeking better lives can encounter racism, bureaucratic hurdles, and social exclusion. Community cohesion weakens as population shifts generate competition for limited resources, heightening tensions and contributing to societal fragmentation. Migrants who risked it all for better jobs and improved quality of life can be left dependent on the state with difficulty accessing services, social isolation, and challenges in community cohesion.

The UK's Costly Immigration Model:

The UK has been criticised for overspending on asylum infrastructure. A data breach in February 2022 - named by several high profile newspapers as "the most expensive email in history"- has been reported to cost the British government £2 billion GBP.*5

By March 2025, 32,345 asylum seekers were residing in UK hotels. Among them, Afghan nationals formed the largest single group, comprising roughly 12% (or 3,882 individuals). Parliamentary reports estimate that accommodation for Afghan migrants costs approximately £1 million per day.*13 This would contribute to the Home Office’s cumulative overspend of £7.9 billion.

Collection- Migration and Data:

While public discourse focuses on the social and economic impacts of immigration, a less visible but obvious dimension exists: data collection. The UK government’s recently published industrial strategy till 2035*12 suggests data-rich environments such as life sciences, healthcare, data collection & Governance. Such sectors including migrant populations, may be leveraged for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) large model development.

Collecting structured data from just 1% of Afghanistan's population (400,000 individuals) could yield a uniquely valuable dataset due to its geographic, linguistic, and demographic diversity. Chat GPT AI valued a clean, structured Afghanistan dataset at between $6 million and $28 million. With 10 million Afghans displaced (25% of the population), a well-maintained dataset could be worth $150 million to $700 million.

Organizations like the NHS, WHO, and AI labs prize Afghani data for their richness and scarcity. ( a few reasons for Afghan data sets increased value listed below in Figure 3.) Afghan datasets may be valued at 2x to 3x per capita compared to standard population data.*15 Reasons include Structured & Interoperable Format, Unique Population Layer, Public Health & Security Synergies and Regulatory & Ethical Strength. (Any use of Afghan NHS records - even anonymized - is trusted by international researchers and governments adding market legitimacy to the dataset.). If used to pretrain sovereign AGI models, these datasets can support systems aimed at powering healthcare, education, and governance within Afghanistan.

Figure 2: ( left) What Happens to Afghan Data? Source, ChatGPT

Figure 3 : (right) Valuation and strategic use of Afghan datasets, source Chat GPT.

Strategic Consequences:

While Western nations grapple with migration crises, the race to dominate AGI development intensifies with AI and tech bro communities. Whoever controls the most comprehensive training datasets could shape global norms across finance, culture, and governance.

The UK's potential leadership in AGI development is underpinned by its access to diverse, high-value datasets - often derived from migrant communities. This, however raises serious ethical concerns around data governance and protection for stateless or vulnerable populations.

Despite significant expenditure on accommodation and resettlement, most Afghan migration remains unsustainable. Temporary stays, forced returns, and minimal integration support persist. Meanwhile, Channel crossings have surged: by July 31, 2025, over 25,400 migrants had crossed, a 51% increase year-over-year.*4

Cohesion; Diplomatic Shifts, Control and Public Trust:

In an effort to reassert diplomatic control, the UK government appointed Mr. Richard Lindsay as special envoy to Afghanistan in June 2025. His new Afghanistan-focused department will operate from the UK to navigate diplomatic, humanitarian, and development challenges.*8

Cost:

Yet trust in the UK's two-party system is waning. Immigration is now seen as a proxy for larger political dysfunction. Rising costs, lack of clear policy, and media revelations - such as Home Office spending £2.1 billion on hotel stays - have fuelled widespread disillusionment.

Consequences: Who Benefits?

This article closes by asking a question: Who benefits most from a destabilised Britain?

As government spending escalates and public faith erodes, the migration issue increasingly intersects with data capitalism, AI competition, and global geopolitical tensions.

The UK’s Afghan migration dilemma is emblematic of broader global tensions - where humanitarian imperatives, domestic pressures, and technological ambitions collide. As the government’s costly attempts at accommodation and resettlement continue to strain public finances and patience, the question of who benefits from Britain’s current predicament highlights the urgent need for coherent policy, public trust, and international vision as immigration, data, and destabilisation become ever more entwined in shaping the UK’s future.